Forrester introduced an AI Bubble Model to assess market stability. It tracks supply pressure and demand absorption using public financial data. Supply pressure is at 4.95 while demand absorption is 3.44. Builder health scored 82 in Q2 2026, still green but falling. A nowcast on November 2 put health at 79.1. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft are outspending operating cash. Oracle and CoreWeave are raising funds as share prices drop. The model excludes private firms like OpenAI and Anthropic. It will update when those vendors go public. The figures come from a Forrester report.
What changed
Builder health was 97.7 in Q2 2025 and 82.3 in Q2 2026.
What it unlocks
Tracking whether AI compute builders can sustain their spending without a bubble burst.
- supply pressure at 4.95
- demand absorption at 3.44
- builder health at 82
- nowcast at 79.1
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