Benedict Evans argues that AI will not turn most workers into software builders. Most people focus on their own work, not on redesigning how it is done. The hard part is spotting that a tool is needed and deciding what it should do. Writing code faster does not solve either. Any process touching many people and departments still needs a purchase and a long rollout. Evans describes software as a spectrum from institutionalised systems to improvised spreadsheets and email. Chatbots become another improvised space beside Excel and email. He notes that companies handed out Copilot or ChatGPT and saw heavy use by only a few. Pilots succeed about half the time, which he calls normal. He expects the lasting value in things nobody has imagined yet.

• roughly half of AI pilots work
• Carta valued at $4bn