Noesion Radarnoesion.ai
Research2026-07-29

In a July 29, 2026 timeboxed blog post, Dwarkesh Patel argues that AI compute prices could rise 10x or more because model capability is improving faster than compute supply. He notes lab compute capacity grows roughly 3x per year (1.4x Moore's Law, 1.2x new fabs constrained by EUV tool supply through at least 2030, and 1.8x from AI taking leading-edge wafer allocation, which saturates as AI moves from 60% to 86% of N3 by end of 2027), while Anthropic revenue has been 10x-ing year over year toward an estimated $100-150B this year. He cites spot GPU prices up 40%+ from a February trough and Google reportedly paying SpaceX over $900M a month for 110K blended GB200/GB300 GPUs, about 2x spot. His headline claim: a human-level software engineer running on one H100 equivalent would justify renting that H100 for over $250k a year, 15x current spot price.

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