Noesion Radarnoesion.ai
Research2026-08-06

The Institute for Progress published a report assessing a July 2026 open letter signed by over 1,300 frontier AI company employees that asked the US government to support an international effort to "deliberately pace" automated AI development. The authors judge the claim that AI R&D is rapidly automating to be empirically supported — citing software engineering time horizons doubling roughly every 7 months, Anthropic results where models outperformed two human researchers on an open-ended AI safety problem (97% vs 23% improvement over 5-7 days), and METR's forecast that over 99% of AI R&D tasks are automated by 2032 — while noting Epoch AI's benchmarking showed no capability speedup as of August 2026.

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