Noesion Radarnoesion.ai
Research2026-08-07

A Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis study released in July 2026 analyzed 490,000 earnings call transcripts from publicly traded U.S. firms covering 2000 through 2025 and found that about 95% of AI-related productivity discussion referred to future rather than realized gains, compared with about 75% for productivity discussion not involving AI. The share of productivity-related sentences also mentioning AI was near zero before ChatGPT's November 2022 launch, rose sharply in 2023, leveled off in 2024, then accelerated again to nearly 15% by the end of 2025. Meanwhile utilization-adjusted total factor productivity grew only 0.07% over the four quarters ending in Q1 2026. The authors concluded firms are investing, experimenting and reorganizing around AI while measurable productivity effects remain mostly ahead.

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