Research2026-09-15

AI will create sharply divergent labor-market outcomes across occupations and industries. Exposure to AI does not guarantee commercially viable automation or augmentation. Policy should focus on how AI changes the value of human expertise. Successful adoption requires knowing when to trust AI as well as how to use it. More capable models may make AI adoption more autonomous across workflows. Workforce policy should preempt worst downsides and adapt to evolving changes. It should prioritize displaced workers and expand access to high-return opportunities. Programs should involve employers and promote domain-specific training and apprenticeships. A federal wage-insurance program is recommended. The goal is a framework that identifies unforeseen disruptions and responds effectively.

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