Anthropic published a model of how AI might affect US jobs, growth and wages by 2030. It treats every job as a bundle of tasks that AI can automate, assist, ignore or create. Three scenarios are set out: modest, substantial and extreme. In the modest and substantial cases, unemployment stays within historical ranges. In the extreme case, knowledge-work wages fall and unemployment passes recession levels. Labour's share of each dollar earned drops as capital's share rises across scenarios. An accompanying survey of over 10,000 Americans implies outcomes close to the substantial scenario. An interactive explorer lets readers enter their own capability and adoption assumptions. Anthropic notes the model omits policy responses, business cycles and advanced robotics. Outside economists who reviewed it questioned the extreme scenario and the coarse treatment of displaced workers.

• Modest: +1.6% GDP, $34.1T
• Substantial: +8.3% GDP, $36.3T
• Extreme: +32.4% GDP, $44.4T
• 10,980 Americans surveyed