Noesion Radarnoesion.ai
Research2026-08-05

On August 5, 2026, Zvi Mowshowitz published "The Three AI Pills" on Don't Worry About the Vase, proposing a taxonomy of four positions in AI debates based on how many of three "pills" a person has taken: the AI pill (accepting what current systems can already do), the AGI pill (accepting rapid capability advances), and the ASI pill (accepting AI will do approximately all things better than humans within natural lifetimes). He argues most people, including many economists and policymakers, have taken at most the first pill, and calls the AGI pill sufficient to justify the interventions currently in the Overton window as of August 2026 — alignment investment, state capacity, transparency, liability, disclosures, safety testing of internal models, red teaming, auditing, and export-control enforcement. The essay coins "Intelligence Denialism" for the view that intelligence caps out near smart-human level, and works through exchanges with Dean W. Ball, Timothy B.

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