Barclays analysts told clients in a note dated Tuesday 21 July 2026 that evidence linking AI adoption to stronger productivity is "unconvincing", finding that US industries which embraced the technology had not seen larger productivity growth improvements than before adoption. The bank described AI adoption as "gradual and steady rather than rapid and transformative", with most households and businesses reporting limited exposure, and said evidence of a structural pickup in productivity growth "remains surprisingly fragile". Barclays noted professional services had adopted widely while public administration and retail lagged; US surveys suggested about half of adults use AI in some form, but only 14pc reported using it daily for work as of Q2 2026. The finding cuts against Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh's claim that AI is "structurally disinflationary", and lands after US markets fell the prior week on doubts about AI infrastructure payback.