Deloitte forecasts US holiday e-commerce to grow faster than retail sales overall. The season runs from November 2026 through January 2027. Deloitte credits shoppers' use of digital tools to research, compare and buy. Total holiday retail sales are projected to rise to about $1.7 trillion. Deloitte also expects disposable personal income to grow 4.5% to 5.2%. Economist Akrur Barua calls that income measure a strong predictor of sales. Deloitte executive Natalie Martini says value-seeking behaviour persists across income levels. Shoppers are switching brands and retailers and leaning on promotions. Bain & Company separately found a quarter of holiday shoppers will start product discovery with AI tools such as Gemini, ChatGPT and Claude. That is a 17% rise on 2025.
What changed
Last holiday season's retail sales grew 4.1% to $1.63 trillion.
- 4%-4.8% total holiday sales growth
- 7.5%-8.4% e-commerce growth
- $316.1bn-$318.9bn e-commerce
- 24% to start discovery with AI
Sources