Brookings argues that mid-sized economies risk permanent dependence on US and Chinese AI. Douglas Rediker names Europe, Japan and South Korea as the countries facing this choice. He rejects full self-sufficiency as unrealistic, since no one country can cover the whole AI supply chain. Instead he proposes "modular sovereignty": pooling costly shared assets while keeping control of applications and deployment. The best opening lies in physical and industrial AI, especially regulated areas such as hospitals, power grids, rail, ports and telecoms. There, legal jurisdiction and reliability matter more than price. Binding, reciprocal government purchasing could give home suppliers anchor customers and usable revenue. The note cites past US export curbs on Nvidia chips and on two Anthropic models as evidence of the risk. It also flags a draft State Department letter, reported by Reuters, warning partners against joining rival AI groupings.

• $286bn US private AI investment 2025
• $12.4bn China reported 2025
• 54% of robot installations in China
• 24 Pax Silica signatories