Stanford researchers analysing payroll records from ADP found that workers aged 22 to 25 in occupations most exposed to generative AI, such as software developers and customer service staff, saw employment fall by about 16% relative to less exposed roles, while employment for older workers in the same jobs kept growing. Declines appeared only where AI automates tasks rather than assists with them, and pay levels barely moved. The authors caution that other factors may contribute and that the data covers the United States only.
What changed
Earlier economy-wide studies lacked the granularity to measure employment effects by age and AI exposure, and found little or no impact.
What it unlocks
Grounding entry-level hiring and workforce planning discussions in payroll records rather than forecasts.
- 16% relative employment decline, ages 22-25
- 6% decline vs 6-9% rise for older
- 3.5-5 million workers per month
- digitaleconomy.stanford.edu2026-08-20