Research2026-11-02

Peter Hull used AI to replicate 1,346 staggered-adoption tests from 108 economics papers. Two-way fixed effects estimates were highly correlated with modern difference-in-differences methods. Sign reversals occurred in 10.8–14.5% of comparisons. TWFE showed greater precision. Hierarchical models implied a 91–98% correlation between estimands. The probability of a statistically significant TWFE estimate with the opposite sign was 0.6–2.1%. The findings suggest negative weights may be less serious in practice. The work demonstrates AI’s role in large-scale empirical assessments of econometric methods.

What it unlocks

Assessing the real-world impact of negative weights in two-way fixed effects estimation at scale.

  • 1,346 staggered-adoption specifications
  • 108 economics papers
  • 10.8–14.5% sign reversals
  • 91–98% correlation between estimands

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